[GRIMDARK] Fallout Equestria: Project Horizons Discussion

Scienza wrote:Is that how we're defining NMM in PH canon? 'cause it's kinda weird. In FiM, it's because Luna was feeling angsty. In the comics, it's because she was possessed by moon demons. In the original FoE, it's hinted that it's possession with Steelhooves' whole "SAY SHE WAS A DIFFERENT PERSON OR I WILL SHOOT YOUR STRIPED ASS" thing, but that might just be Equestrian propaganda. Right now, I'm not sure which explanation is more consistent with PH, since the fic does heavily feature both psychological instability and cosmic eldritch horror.

Unless of course, it got confirmed in a chapter or by Somber and I'm just being forgetful.  

Without even stepping outside of PH, chapter 66:
“No?  She has ambition.  Pride.  A determination to prove herself.  How is that not me?”  Luna walked slowly away and lifted her head to the sky.  “I was ambivalent when Celestia abdicated.  On one hoof, I’d seen what rule had done to her.  On the other, I craved acknowledgement and respect.  I resented her.  A thousand years, and little had changed.  I was in her shadow again, the lesser princess... but I was wiser than I had been.  I would not rebel; I’d felt the cold bite and loneliness of a millennium of exile.  So when she stepped aside for me, I was terrified and thrilled all at once.”  She turned and regarded my frozen body.  “Who is to say she cannot be me reborn?”

She goes on to note,
“Blackjack, I ordered the deaths of ten million ponies and caused the deaths of sixty million zebras over the course of the war.  You’ve seen Nopony’s Land.  You haven’t seen the multitude of other battlefields, but I assure you that there were many worse.  And if you consider how many lives the megaspells took, the number of corpses at my hooves becomes incalculably higher,” she bowed her head.  “No matter how you regard it, I am evil too.”

She shows regret for her actions there, but Cogs reacted in a different way. She believes she has the means to fix her mistake, to make up for what she did by bringing about a new golden age (or should that be "chrome age"?) The EoS/Tokomare indicated that it sees her as a deluded pawn, and I have to wonder if proximity to it gradually replaced her moral compass with the Tokomare's. After all, if magic is the physical projection of the soul, then what is a soulless mind to latch onto? Perhaps the soul-frequency that's being projected so loudly it kills everything around it?

Silver136 wrote:That's because they're smart, and a smart "villain" often times isn't a complete villain. Goldenblood worked behind the scenes to secure resources for projects he believed would give Equestria the war. He worked carefully and intelligently, where as the ministries projects were known by pretty much every member of every ministry. It allowed him to get things done that can't be done under normal circumstances, and to me his willingness to follow through no matter what makes him a great character. All he did, he did it with the hopes that it would end the war sooner, so I've always considered Goldie more of an anti-hero than a villain.

Oh, no, he's definitely a villain. An antihero is a protagonist or ally who lives somewhere in the amoral end of the pool, like Rampage. But there's nothing that says a villain can't still be a likeable character. If anything, I'd consider Goldenblood to be an antivillain.

SilentCarto wrote:

Silver136 wrote:That's because they're smart, and a smart "villain" often times isn't a complete villain. Goldenblood worked behind the scenes to secure resources for projects he believed would give Equestria the war. He worked carefully and intelligently, where as the ministries projects were known by pretty much every member of every ministry. It allowed him to get things done that can't be done under normal circumstances, and to me his willingness to follow through no matter what makes him a great character. All he did, he did it with the hopes that it would end the war sooner, so I've always considered Goldie more of an anti-hero than a villain.

Oh, no, he's definitely a villain. An antihero is a protagonist or ally who lives somewhere in the amoral end of the pool, like Rampage. But there's nothing that says a villain can't still be a likeable character. If anything, I'd consider Goldenblood to be an antivillain.

I can't call Goldenblood a villain though. Everything he did, he did it for the good of Equestria, going far enough to defy Luna and help make the Gardens, and keeping lines open with the zebras. I honestly think the "evil villain" thing was a facade, so he could take the downfall at the event closing.

You know, I'm kind of glad the chapter release got delayed. If we'd gotten it out last weekend as we planned, there likely wouldn't be nearly so much of this discussion. :)

I can't really weigh in, but I'll say that I'm looking forward to reading your reactions to the chapter.

O. Hinds wrote:You know, I'm kind of glad the chapter release got delayed.  If we'd gotten it out last weekend as we planned, there likely wouldn't be nearly so much of this discussion.  :)

I can't really weigh in, but I'll say that I'm looking forward to reading your reactions to the chapter.

Hinds please.

Silver136 wrote:"Sometimes to do what's right, you have to become the villain of the piece."      -Scootaloo
Sometimes you need a mountain of corpses to stop an ocean of corpses from forming.

That's not what that means. Scootaloo is just saying, "What's right is not always popular, and what's popular is not always right." For example, bringing down an evil, oppressive government may introduce instability and privation for the populace. They won't thank you for that. But when that government is based on exiling and killing dissenters, it's wrong. Security and comfort often cost blood, but it shouldn't be innocent blood.

I will grant that, once in a while (though infrequently,) there's no "good" answer. But I think it's important to recognize that being offered a choice between two bad options doesn't make one of them "right". Think of Vault 11, where they were told they had to send an innocent man to his death each year to preserve the rest of the population; the whole point of the experiment was to teach that lesson. It may be necessary, it may be justified, it may even be something nobody blames you for. But none of that makes the lesser of two evils into good.

But when the options are either the death of hundreds of millions or hundreds of thousands, I would think the lesser evil is the better choice. If Goldie hadn't started the ministries and gotten projects like power armor started, casualties would be 100 times worse. And if he'd just not chosen, well you still get millions rather than thousands of deaths.

O. Hinds wrote:You know, I'm kind of glad the chapter release got delayed.  If we'd gotten it out last weekend as we planned, there likely wouldn't be nearly so much of this discussion.  :)

I can't really weigh in, but I'll say that I'm looking forward to reading your reactions to the chapter.

I knew it was suppose to drop last week! Wish it did, I needed a pick me up from that Game of Thrones ending :|

Silver136 wrote:I can't call Goldenblood a villain though. Everything he did, he did it for the good of Equestria, going far enough to defy Luna and help make the Gardens, and keeping lines open with the zebras. I honestly think the "evil villain" thing was a facade, so he could take the downfall at the event closing.

No. Everything he did, right from the start, he did for the good of Luna, not Equestria. He did everything he could to facilitate turning Equestria into the dictatorial freakshow that could win the war rather than let Luna fail or have to make any concessions at all. He over anyone else could see where it was all leading, and it was still full steam ahead, straight into Hell with his eyes wide open. It was only at the very end that he realized just exactly what lived under Hoofington, and by then, nuclear annihilation was the best option left.

SilentCarto wrote:

Silver136 wrote:I can't call Goldenblood a villain though. Everything he did, he did it for the good of Equestria, going far enough to defy Luna and help make the Gardens, and keeping lines open with the zebras. I honestly think the "evil villain" thing was a facade, so he could take the downfall at the event closing.

No. Everything he did, right from the start, he did for the good of Luna, not Equestria. He did everything he could to facilitate turning Equestria into the dictatorial freakshow that could win the war rather than let Luna fail or have to make any concessions at all. He over anyone else could see where it was all leading, and it was still full steam ahead, straight into Hell with his eyes wide open. It was only at the very end that he realized just exactly what lived under Hoofington, and by then, nuclear annihilation was the best option left.

At first yes, he was trying to repay Luna since she had helped him. However, later on he did things against her will and without her knowledge. Horizons, Gardens, and the zebra peace lines were all kept from her. He tried to leave and let her sort out the government, but Luna blackmailed him, giving him no choice.

Silver136 wrote:"The three most important things are love, loyalty, and secrets." 
Yeah she'd been eavesdropping on him and Rarity so he threw her down the elevator shaft.

I'm not seeing the moral ambiguity here. There were almost certainly memory erasure spells he could have used. Even failing that there's the old Due Process of Law whereby he can have her imprisoned somewhere she couldn't tell anyone what she overheard. Instead he immediately resorts to cold-blooded murder, but only after giving his little moral superiority line about love, loyalty, and secrets. Even if he never did any other crime at all, just for that I'd never call him a good person.

Not a good person, no. There's no way you can be where he was, do what he did, and maintain being a "good person." My point behind Goldie is his hands were tied. He wanted to quit, but Luna wouldn't let him. He tried to help, but he was trying to do it alone. Should he have looked for others, I'm willing to bet things would have gone much better.

Silver136 wrote:But when the options are either the death of hundreds of millions or hundreds of thousands, I would think the lesser evil is the better choice. If Goldie hadn't started the ministries and gotten projects like power armor started, casualties would be 100 times worse. And if he'd just not chosen, well you still get millions rather than thousands of deaths.

What did I just say? "It may be necessary, it may be justified, it may even be something nobody blames you for. But none of that makes the lesser of two evils into good."

Anyway, as I alluded, this was not a "lesser of two evils" situation. Such a stark choice is very, very rare. There was a third option: turn herself over to the Zebras until such time as they were satisfied that she was not in fact Nightmare Moon anymore. Negotiate. Concede. Surrender, even. Perhaps even accept Zebra occupation so they could ensure that Equestria was not under the sway of the beings they feared. But no, her pride wouldn't allow her to be seen as the weaker sister, the one who couldn't hack it; in short, her pride was more important to her than the lives of millions of her subjects.

It was stated that the zebras refused to see her as anything but Nightmare Moon. Even after the war, they were stilled afraid of "Nightmare Moon's army." And surrender would have meant death for Luna, many high ranking officials, and whoever else the zebras decided wasn't worthy of living. It's still a choice of thousands or millions.

Silver136 wrote:Not a good person, no. There's no way you can be where he was, do what he did, and maintain being a "good person." My point behind Goldie is his hands were tied. He wanted to quit, but Luna wouldn't let him. He tried to help, but he was trying to do it alone. Should he have looked for others, I'm willing to bet things would have gone much better.

He still set himself between the false dichotomy of continuing to support Luna and walking away. It wouldn't have been hard -- get the Mane Six together, all in the same place at the same time, lay everything on the table, and watch them kick the legs out from under Luna's government. He said it himself -- if Twilight quit, all six would, and the government would collapse. But no, that would mean making Luna look bad, forcing her to accept the consequences of her choices. Much better to keep them on course to destroy everything that was once noble and laudable about Equestria.

Because of a crush.

*mic drop*   

Silver136 wrote:It was stated that the zebras refused to see her as anything but Nightmare Moon. Even after the war, they were stilled afraid of "Nightmare Moon's army." And surrender would have meant death for Luna, many high ranking officials, and whoever else the zebras decided wasn't worthy of living. It's still a choice of thousands or millions.

At this point, I'm having trouble seeing her as anything but Nightmare Moon by the end. Would Celestia have hesitated to sacrifice herself to save her little ponies?

By the way, the Quote button is located to the right, just above each post. Please use it.

SilentCarto wrote:By the way, the Quote button is located to the right, just above each post. Please use it.

In Silver's defense, he has used quotes as recently as the previous page. It would help clarity if he did use quotes, yes, but I doubt he's forgotten how. I do see people skipping on that when posts are made really quickly, though, which is happening since this is a rapid discussion (for a forum thread).

Of course my metaphor breaks down when there's actual people who know their chess around, but my point was less on how powerful the pieces are and more of their importance. In the larger picture Goldenblood was a pawn (okay not a pawn, maybe a Bishop, but pawns are the only ones who can be promoted if they make it the other side of the board) but over time he's become a King. He is the reason for Blackjack's journey, the mystery surrounding him is what drove her forward by way of trying to learn more about the program she carried, and right now he is the only thing holding Cogs' plan back. He is THE most important piece on the board if for no other reason than for his shadow being cast over the whole story and plot as a whole ever since he was first mentioned.

That said, this isn't a normal game a Chess. There is no Check Mate, there is no instant win condition for taking the king. Hell in this case a Pawn can become a King as I claimed earlier when it turns out I was wrong. It ain't even a proper Chess board with the correct pieces, more like whatever the hell was around that was good enough to use. But, as it was pointed out earlier, the most powerful piece is the Queen. And as long as she can move the game shall never end.

Should have quit when I was ahead....

SilentCarto wrote:

Silver136 wrote:Not a good person, no. There's no way you can be where he was, do what he did, and maintain being a "good person." My point behind Goldie is his hands were tied. He wanted to quit, but Luna wouldn't let him. He tried to help, but he was trying to do it alone. Should he have looked for others, I'm willing to bet things would have gone much better.

He still set himself between the false dichotomy of continuing to support Luna and walking away. It wouldn't have been hard -- get the Mane Six together, all in the same place at the same time, lay everything on the table, and watch them kick the legs out from under Luna's government. He said it himself -- if Twilight quit, all six would, and the government would collapse. But no, that would mean making Luna look bad, forcing her to accept the consequences of her choices. Much better to keep them on course to destroy everything that was once noble and laudable about Equestria.

Because of a crush.

Silver136 wrote:It was stated that the zebras refused to see her as anything but Nightmare Moon. Even after the war, they were stilled afraid of "Nightmare Moon's army." And surrender would have meant death for Luna, many high ranking officials, and whoever else the zebras decided wasn't worthy of living. It's still a choice of thousands or millions.

At this point, I'm having trouble seeing her as anything but Nightmare Moon by the end. Would Celestia have hesitated to sacrifice herself to save her little ponies?

By the way, the Quote button is located to the right, just above each post. Please use it.

I've been typing most of these on my phone, quoting is annoying and buggy on it, however with the number of posts I've been making I migrated to my PC.

As for pulling the Mane 6 together and explaining things, I already explained this. The collapse of the ministries, with all the pressure and focus on them, would have been catastrophic. Morale would be crushed, production would flatline. The whole war effort would go bad, resulting in Zebra takeover, and bringing us back to my last post with zebras killing whomever they like.

And Celestia is no longer in power. Luna specifically stated she didn't want to be like Celestia. She wanted her government to be different. It is stated the difference between the princesses was like the difference between night and day, and the same was said about their governments. Luna wouldn't do the same things Celestia did.

Silver136 wrote:As for pulling the Mane 6 together and explaining things, I already explained this. The collapse of the ministries, with all the pressure and focus on them, would have been catastrophic. Morale would be crushed, production would flatline. The whole war effort would go bad, resulting in Zebra takeover, and bringing us back to my last post with zebras killing whomever they like.

The collapse of the ministries would have forced Equestria to surrender. The Zebras would certainly occupy Equestria for many years, yes, but would they really murder anywhere near the millions of ponies they did during the war? I think they would try to get Equestria to do those warcrime trials, if possible, but if Equestria surrendered where are the thousands of ponies they would decide to murder for... what reason, exactly? Hell, from what we know the Zebra government would quickly fracture without the war holding the... whatever the name for their president was in power.

Derpmind wrote:

Silver136 wrote:As for pulling the Mane 6 together and explaining things, I already explained this. The collapse of the ministries, with all the pressure and focus on them, would have been catastrophic. Morale would be crushed, production would flatline. The whole war effort would go bad, resulting in Zebra takeover, and bringing us back to my last post with zebras killing whomever they like.

The collapse of the ministries would have forced Equestria to surrender. The Zebras would certainly occupy Equestria for many years, yes, but would they really murder anywhere near the millions of ponies they did during the war? I think they would try to get Equestria to do those warcrime trials, if possible, but if Equestria surrendered where are the thousands of ponies they would decide to murder for... what reason, exactly? Hell, from what we know the Zebra government would quickly fracture without the war holding the... whatever the name for their president was in power.

Without the ministries, all production pretty much reaches a standstill. This means things like power armor, special ammunition, tanks, and all the other machines used be Equestrian forces are never made. The collapse wouldn't cause an instant surrender. the war would continue for at least another year, except now Equestria is at a severe disadvantage.  Once they do surrender, the Caeser will be looking to save face, and so he'll want to punish those responsible for slaughtering his people. And again, they saw Luna as Nightmare Moon. Anyone who was close to her would likely be executed under the charge "touched by the stars." If he were particularly wrathful, he would kill ponnies as an example to the survivors, a "don't mess with me or you're next" type thing. Intimidation tactics used by dictators everywhere.

Silver136 wrote:Without the ministries, all production pretty much reaches a standstill. This means things like power armor, special ammunition, tanks, and all the other machines used be Equestrian forces are never made. The collapse wouldn't cause an instant surrender. the war would continue for at least another year, except now Equestria is at a severe disadvantage.  Once they do surrender, the Caeser will be looking to save face, and so he'll want to punish those responsible for slaughtering his people. And again, they saw Luna as Nightmare Moon. Anyone who was close to her would likely be executed under the charge "touched by the stars." If he were particularly wrathful, he would kill ponnies as an example to the survivors, a "don't mess with me or you're next" type thing. Intimidation tactics used by dictators everywhere.

I'd rather Luna be executed than the entire world destroyed.

Derpmind wrote:

Silver136 wrote:Without the ministries, all production pretty much reaches a standstill. This means things like power armor, special ammunition, tanks, and all the other machines used be Equestrian forces are never made. The collapse wouldn't cause an instant surrender. the war would continue for at least another year, except now Equestria is at a severe disadvantage.  Once they do surrender, the Caeser will be looking to save face, and so he'll want to punish those responsible for slaughtering his people. And again, they saw Luna as Nightmare Moon. Anyone who was close to her would likely be executed under the charge "touched by the stars." If he were particularly wrathful, he would kill ponnies as an example to the survivors, a "don't mess with me or you're next" type thing. Intimidation tactics used by dictators everywhere.

I'd rather Luna be executed than the entire world destroyed.

It wouldn't just be Luna. The war, now heavily favoring the Zebras, would kill thousands outright. Then comes zebra occupation. Luna is executed. All those close to Luna are executed. The Caeser, as a form of dictator over Equestria, now has to find a way to secure power and prove to his people he is fit to lead. So he kills ponies all over Equestria, setting an example for the rest that rebellion will not be tolerated. Ponies become his scapegoat, allowing him to continue holding power having "Pacified Equestria through his great leading ability."

Silver136 wrote:It wouldn't just be Luna. The war, now heavily favoring the Zebras, would kill thousands outright. Then comes zebra occupation. Luna is executed. All those close to Luna are executed. The Caeser, as a form of dictator over Equestria, now has to find a way to secure power and prove to his people he is fit to lead. So he kills ponies all over Equestria, setting an example for the rest that rebellion will not be tolerated. Ponies become his scapegoat, allowing him to continue holding power having "Pacified Equestria through his great leading ability."

Even if things went to that extreme, it still sounds better to me than the literal end of the world. And by prolonging the war Goldenblood also set the stage for the release of the Tokomare. Really, there isn't any early enough time where prolonging the war would be better than ending it.

Derpmind wrote:

Silver136 wrote:It wouldn't just be Luna. The war, now heavily favoring the Zebras, would kill thousands outright. Then comes zebra occupation. Luna is executed. All those close to Luna are executed. The Caeser, as a form of dictator over Equestria, now has to find a way to secure power and prove to his people he is fit to lead. So he kills ponies all over Equestria, setting an example for the rest that rebellion will not be tolerated. Ponies become his scapegoat, allowing him to continue holding power having "Pacified Equestria through his great leading ability."

Even if things went to that extreme, it still sounds better to me than the literal end of the world. And by prolonging the war Goldenblood also set the stage for the release of the Tokomare. Really, there isn't any early enough time where prolonging the war would be better than ending it.

Sure, but we know Amadi/Legate was around then. I doubt he'd have simply let the Tokomare lie after finding out it's there. He worships the thing, he would have found some way to use it, apocalypse or no.

Silver136 wrote:Sure,

Aha! You have admitted defeat! You have conceded! This argument is now over!   

So... who wants to start another one?

Derpmind wrote:

Silver136 wrote:Sure,

Aha! You have admitted defeat! You have conceded! This argument is now over!   

So... who wants to start another one?

But the focus on this isn't the Tokomare. The issue is Goldenblood's actions, why he acted as he did, and whether or not it's justified. The fact still stands that surrender will result in mass death, and since the Tokomare is now in question, Zebras own Equestria. It would be easy for Amadi to collect a few Starkatteri and move into the Hoofington area. They would take over the Eater, and we face that issue on top of the Caeser.

Dutcher wrote:

O. Hinds wrote:You know, I'm kind of glad the chapter release got delayed.  If we'd gotten it out last weekend as we planned, there likely wouldn't be nearly so much of this discussion.  :)

I can't really weigh in, but I'll say that I'm looking forward to reading your reactions to the chapter.

Hinds please.

Oh, sorry; I think that there may have been some confusion; we're hoping to get it out [REDACTED], not releasing today.  I hope your keyboard's okay.  :)

swicked wrote:

O. Hinds wrote:You know, I'm kind of glad the chapter release got delayed.  If we'd gotten it out last weekend as we planned, there likely wouldn't be nearly so much of this discussion.  :)

I can't really weigh in, but I'll say that I'm looking forward to reading your reactions to the chapter.

Hiiiiiiiiinds, I thought we weren't supposed to talk about chapter release stuff! They can obviously guess when it will be now!  

Sorry!  I didn't actually post saying when we were hoping for!


Regarding the outcome of Equestria making an early surrender, with my Pax Roamana, it would be a very good outcome for Equestria.  I'm not sure how similar PH's Zebra Empire would be in this regard, though.

Silver136 wrote:But the focus on this isn't the Tokomare. The issue is Goldenblood's actions, why he acted as he did, and whether or not it's justified. The fact still stands that surrender will result in mass death, and since the Tokomare is now in question, Zebras own Equestria. It would be easy for Amadi to collect a few Starkatteri and move into the Hoofington area. They would take over the Eater, and we face that issue on top of the Caeser.

But it's not like any of that was Goldenblood's motivation. Like, ever. And the argument about Amadi being able to release the EoS with or without the war's help is another argument entirely. Goldenblood didn't know that it would happen until near the end.

Derpmind wrote:

Silver136 wrote:But the focus on this isn't the Tokomare. The issue is Goldenblood's actions, why he acted as he did, and whether or not it's justified. The fact still stands that surrender will result in mass death, and since the Tokomare is now in question, Zebras own Equestria. It would be easy for Amadi to collect a few Starkatteri and move into the Hoofington area. They would take over the Eater, and we face that issue on top of the Caeser.

But it's not like any of that was Goldenblood's motivation. Like, ever. And the argument about Amadi being able to release the EoS with or without the war's help is another argument entirely. Goldenblood didn't know that it would happen until near the end.

Wow, this veered way off of what we were originally talking about.

Goldenblood did what he did to help Equestria. Everything he did was for the good of the country. In the beginning he acted rashly, and only to help Luna. However as the war progressed, he tried to stop the war. And if you recall, back at the meeting where Luna and Celestia first meet Goldenblood, he advised against war in the first place. Arguing that Goldenblood worked on a "crush" with Luna is only accurate in the very beginning of his rise to power. Afterwards though, he began to realise his error, and tried to fix it.

O. Hinds wrote:
Regarding the outcome of Equestria making an early surrender, with my Pax Roamana, it would be a very good outcome for Equestria.  I'm not sure how similar PH's Zebra Empire would be in this regard, though.

I can't speak for the Pax Roamana, but bearing in mind the lengths that the Zebra Empire went (war over a a couple of mild insults, one legitimate, one not; countering one massacre with two greater; sending tens of millions to die even as the shadows of the Equestrian government are offering the olive branch; a stunningly ill-advised assassination/ransom attempt in response to an open offering to negotiate, which, incidentally, if anything makes less sense if they believe Luna is Nightmare Moon; etc.), I'm not sure just where I think the ceiling on the damage to Equestria would be, but I don't think it would look very good at all. And if you can't receive or are unable to trust the terms of your surrender, well, it's a hard move to justify. Especially when under many measures it looks like your standard of living, at least away from the front, improved during the course of the war (I don't exactly recall there being anything about blackouts and famine in the latter days of the conflict).

I'm inclined to go so far as to say that the very Armageddon outcome justified one or both sides in not seeking a controlled surrender: if your enemy is willing to make a nuclear first strike within a MAD scenario, then you may have some good reason not to surrender. Now, what I may have liked to see at any point was an armed withdrawal and offer to cease hostilities, with the one side limiting military action to their own territory for a time as a sign of goodwill. Now, unfortunately I don't really know what the battle lines looked like, since it's skewed by what the pony-characters have seen. All I'm sure happened outside of Equestria proper are sabotage, air strikes, and an assassination. The Celestia and Luna suggest probable naval conflict as well, but would likely have had problems operating in Zebra waters if they had much ground-based air power available.

Icy Shake wrote:I can't speak for the Pax Roamana, but bearing in mind the lengths that the Zebra Empire went (war over a a couple of mild insults, one legitimate, one not;

Um, it was Equestria that declared war.

Icy Shake wrote:countering one massacre with two greater;

I'm not sure what you mean here.

Icy Shake wrote:sending tens of millions to die even as the shadows of the Equestrian government are offering the olive branch;

We have no idea just what the terms were.

Icy Shake wrote:a stunningly ill-advised assassination/ransom attempt in response to an open offering to negotiate, which, incidentally, if anything makes less sense if they believe Luna is Nightmare Moon;

I like the hypothesis that Celestia was actually in on the events there and was planning to head to Roam to force peace.

Icy Shake wrote:etc.), I'm not sure just where I think the ceiling on the damage to Equestria would be, but I don't think it would look very good at all.

Well, again, I can't speak for the Zebra Empire, but the Pax Roamana, at "worst", if they decided that the Equestria of old was too damaged to save, would have tried to restructure it into a culturally appropriate democratic government with a provisional PR military government.  It would be messy, probably, but the end result wouldn't be all that bad.  (Ignoring any involvement of the Eater, as that's a bit more complex and would depend on the particular circumstances.)

Icy Shake wrote:And if you can't receive or are unable to trust the terms of your surrender, well, it's a hard move to justify. Especially when under many measures it looks like your standard of living, at least away from the front, improved during the course of the war (I don't exactly recall there being anything about blackouts and famine in the latter days of the conflict).

If the Princesses and the Ministry Mares all backed a surrender, I don't think that even end-of-war Equestria had gotten bad enough off for a coup to succeed.

Icy Shake wrote:I'm inclined to go so far as to say that the very Armageddon outcome justified one or both sides in not seeking a controlled surrender: if your enemy is willing to make a nuclear first strike within a MAD scenario, then you may have some good reason not to surrender.

Equestria's technological advancement was about to push it to the point of being unstoppable, and its societal "advancement" was ongoing and had already pushed it to the point where the zebras could quite plausibly have been made a slave species.  To say nothing of the potential for Equestria to launch further wars of conquest in the future…

Icy Shake wrote:Now, what I may have liked to see at any point was an armed withdrawal and offer to cease hostilities, with the one side limiting military action to their own territory for a time as a sign of goodwill. Now, unfortunately I don't really know what the battle lines looked like, since it's skewed by what the pony-characters have seen. All I'm sure happened outside of Equestria proper are sabotage, air strikes, and an assassination. The Celestia and Luna suggest probable naval conflict as well, but would likely have had problems operating in Zebra waters if they had much ground-based air power available.

FoE Chapter 37 wrote:There were markings indicating battle lines where the zebras had managed to push into the country.  Most of the war, however, was being waged in the zebra’s homeland, and in the seas and lands between.

The withdrawal would pretty much have to be made by Equestria.  Which would have been great, and might indeed have lead to a negotiated white peace.  If nothing else, it might have improved relations enough for the backchannel attempts to succeed.  Equestria made not such attempt, though.